Newscenter Media News PARIS — Monday could go down as one of the most important days in the history of the French far right.
It’s the moment judges could crush Marine Le Pen’s dream of winning the presidency, one she has never been closer to realizing, according to opinion polls. Le Pen is on trial for having participated in a scheme to embezzle funds from the European Parliament, and if found guilty could be barred from running for any public office for the next five years. The next presidential election is set for 2027.
While the future may look bright for the National Rally, Le Pen’s party, there may be some bumps on the immediate road ahead. The party does not appear to have performed any detailed contingency planning for a possible future without her, even after the prosecution issued its sentencing recommendations in November. Questions have also been raised if party president Jordan Bardella, 29, is too green to take Le Pen’s place as the National Rally’s presidential candidate.
“It’s a bit amateurish,” a high-ranking National Rally parliamentarian, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, told POLITICO. The lawmaker said he was baffled by the lack of communication from the party and Le Pen ahead of the Monday verdict.
Le Pen initially seemed ready to come out and fight. In the days that followed the sentencing request she repeatedly accused the prosecution of having sought to weaken her politically.
After that? Almost nothing.
“Le Pen said she’d appeal, but it will still be a very unusual way of preparing for the presidential election, with the sword of Damocles hanging by an even thinner thread,” the MP said.
The National Rally lawmaker who spoke with POLITICO expressed little hope that the court would rule in Le Pen’s favor.
The defendants in the case, all of whom have denied wrongdoing, were accused of operating a “system” in which they illicitly siphoned money from the Parliament earmarked for European parliamentary assistants and illicitly used those funds to pay for party employees who seldom or never dealt with affairs in Brussels or Strasbourg.
The prosecution presented damning evidence that many of the assistants never worked the jobs they were said to have.
“If you don’t work, it’s hard to prove that you did work,” the lawmaker said.
Two years to go
A lot can happen between now and 2027. If Le Pen is sentenced but appeals, there’s a chance that her new trial would take place before then. However, that’s beyond the National Rally’s control, and kicking the can down the road would be a risky tactic.
If Le Pen is sentenced but appeals, there’s a chance that her new trial would take place before the 2027 election. | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images
“We’re waiting for the verdict and depending on what it is, we’ll adjust … If the sentence is immediately executed, that means political death, so we’ll have to see what we do,” said one of Le Pen’s closest associates, who was granted anonymity to discuss internal matters.
While the 2027 election is still wide open, other front-runners, like former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, have already announced plans to run and have started campaign preparations.
Despite putting on a brave face, Le Pen’s associate acknowledged the imminent challenges the National Rally would face if the court follows the prosecutors’ recommendations.
The National Rally already has a backup candidate; Le Pen has been working in tandem with Bardella since he took the reins of the party in 2022. The millennial far-right politician led the party in the last two European elections and during last summer’s general election in France — when he was presented as the National Rally’s candidate for prime minister, but only managed to lead his party to an underwhelming third-place finish.
But Bardella lacks Le Pen’s experience in presidential campaigns.
“A plan B needs to be prepared, planned for, thought through,” Le Pen’s associate said. “Our plan B already exists, but he’s our candidate for prime minister.”